Rankings/Albuquerque, NM

Albuquerque, NM

NeutralTier 1CBSA 10740Compare

Risk Rank: #142 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +14

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Albuquerque's housing market shows average risk, ranking 142nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Albuquerque experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump65

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+3.5%p52

Days on Market YoY

-4.7%p38

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.5%p40

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.0%p65

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-11.7%p26

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

3.01p35

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.25p18

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.6%p82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$14Kp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-11.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 27.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Albuquerque's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Bernalillo County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Sandoval County anchors the lower end.

Moderate9.2Limited data

3 of 4 counties scored

Albuquerque, NM shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Bernalillo County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Sandoval County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Bernalillo CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	74.4%	50	100	100
Torrance CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Valencia County	50	Average	8.7%	100	50	0
Sandoval CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	17.0%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	42	37	20	16	81	67
2025-12	Rec	45	34	52	19	60	67
2025-10	Hyp	34	33	47	15	29	41
2025-08	Ress	35	32	47	16	36	41
2025-06	Ress	37	64	47	19	12	41
2025-05	Hyp	36	63	47	19	10	41
2025-04	Ress	37	58	47	19	17	41
2025-02	Ress	38	68	47	21	13	41
2025-01	Hyp	38	65	47	21	13	41
2024-11	Hyp	36	43	47	20	24	41
2024-08	Hyp	37	37	47	20	38	41
2024-05	Ress	42	48	47	19	59	41
2024-03	Ress	39	45	47	19	42	41
2024-02	Hyp	37	41	47	19	37	41
2024-01	Exp	38	37	47	19	45	41
2023-11	Exp	44	49	47	33	53	41
2023-08	Rec	43	58	47	33	39	41
2023-06	Rec	39	63	47	32	11	41
2023-05	Hyp	41	62	47	32	26	41
2023-03	Hyp	45	72	47	34	37	41
2023-01	Ress	42	68	47	34	25	41
2022-11	Ress	44	72	47	29	34	41
2022-08	Ress	40	61	47	25	29	41
2022-06	Hyp	43	58	47	25	49	41
2022-05	Exp	41	58	47	25	36	41
2022-03	Exp	39	58	47	25	25	41
2022-01	Rec	37	54	47	25	19	41
2021-11	Rec	40	54	47	31	19	50
2021-10	Exp	41	57	47	31	25	50
2021-08	Exp	42	57	47	30	33	50
2021-05	Exp	45	60	47	29	46	50
2021-04	Rec	50	61	47	29	73	50
2021-02	Rec	52	76	47	29	69	50
2020-12	Exp	47	72	47	21	77	28
2020-10	Exp	46	74	47	21	66	28
2020-08	Rec	45	76	47	20	63	28
2020-06	Rec	43	66	47	20	58	28
2020-05	Exp	43	66	47	20	59	28
2020-03	Exp	38	66	47	20	27	28
2020-02	Rec	41	72	47	20	43	28
2019-12	Rec	41	69	47	20	45	27
2019-11	Exp	40	69	47	19	37	27
2019-09	Exp	41	75	47	19	40	27
2019-06	Exp	41	59	47	18	59	27
2019-05	Rec	39	53	47	18	49	27
2019-03	Rec	34	24	47	18	48	27
2019-01	Rec	38	29	47	18	71	27

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023