Rankings/Albuquerque, NM

Albuquerque, NM

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 10740Compare

Risk Rank: #252 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Albuquerque experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Albuquerque's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 252nd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+15% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by employment and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p59 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p52 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Migration

p41 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +15% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+14.8%p64

Days on Market YoY

+4.0%p56

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.3%p81

Months in status38

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum21

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth52

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita39

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability17

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment59

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration41

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.6%	p21
Permit Growth	-0.9%	p52
Permits/1K Pop	3.11	p39
Affordability	0.23	p17
Employment	+0.1%	p59
Net AGI Migration	+$32K	p41

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-0.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+14.8%

Days on Market YoY+4.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Albuquerque's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Valencia County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Sandoval County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 4 counties scored

Albuquerque, NM shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Valencia County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Sandoval County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Valencia CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	100	100	0
Bernalillo County	50	Average	33.3%	0	50	100
Torrance CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Sandoval CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	40	27	47	15	69	41
2025-10	Hyp	34	33	47	15	29	41
2025-08	Ress	35	32	47	16	36	41
2025-06	Ress	37	64	47	19	12	41
2025-05	Hyp	36	63	47	19	10	41
2025-04	Ress	37	58	47	19	17	41
2025-02	Ress	38	68	47	21	13	41
2025-01	Hyp	38	65	47	21	13	41
2024-11	Hyp	36	43	47	20	24	41
2024-08	Hyp	37	37	47	20	38	41
2024-05	Ress	42	48	47	19	59	41
2024-03	Ress	39	45	47	19	42	41
2024-02	Hyp	37	41	47	19	37	41
2024-01	Exp	38	37	47	19	45	41
2023-11	Exp	44	49	47	33	53	41
2023-08	Rec	43	58	47	33	39	41
2023-06	Rec	39	63	47	32	11	41
2023-05	Hyp	41	62	47	32	26	41
2023-03	Hyp	45	72	47	34	37	41
2023-01	Ress	42	68	47	34	25	41
2022-11	Ress	44	72	47	29	34	41
2022-08	Ress	40	61	47	25	29	41
2022-06	Hyp	43	58	47	25	49	41
2022-05	Exp	41	58	47	25	36	41
2022-03	Exp	39	58	47	25	25	41
2022-01	Rec	37	54	47	25	19	41
2021-11	Rec	40	54	47	31	19	50
2021-10	Exp	41	57	47	31	25	50
2021-08	Exp	42	57	47	30	33	50
2021-05	Exp	45	60	47	29	46	50
2021-04	Rec	50	61	47	29	73	50
2021-02	Rec	52	76	47	29	69	50
2020-12	Exp	47	72	47	21	77	28
2020-10	Exp	46	74	47	21	66	28
2020-08	Rec	45	76	47	20	63	28
2020-06	Rec	43	66	47	20	58	28
2020-05	Exp	43	66	47	20	59	28
2020-03	Exp	38	66	47	20	27	28
2020-02	Rec	41	72	47	20	43	28
2019-12	Rec	41	69	47	20	45	27
2019-11	Exp	40	69	47	19	37	27
2019-09	Exp	41	75	47	19	40	27
2019-06	Exp	41	59	47	18	59	27
2019-05	Rec	39	53	47	18	49	27
2019-03	Rec	34	24	47	18	48	27
2019-01	Rec	38	29	47	18	71	27

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022