Rankings/Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 10580Compare

Risk Rank: #210 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -10

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Albany's housing market shows average risk, ranking 210th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Albany experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump89

12-month HPI change

Migrationp54

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp51

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+4.4%p53

Days on Market YoY

+4.0%p56

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.5%p89

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-17.4%p18

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.12p21

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.25p17

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.4%p51

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$2Kp54

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-17.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 24.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Albany's counties diverge significantly — Saratoga County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Schenectady County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High21.6Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Albany, NY shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Saratoga County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Schenectady County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Saratoga CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	26.3%	75	25	100
Albany County	62	Elevated	35.0%	25	75	75
Rensselaer County	56	Elevated	17.7%	50	100	25
Schoharie County<5%	44	Below Average	3.3%	100	50	0
Schenectady CountyStabilizer	12	Low Risk	17.7%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	37	76	8	15	50	54
2025-12	Rec	36	72	24	15	27	54
2025-11	Exp	52	76	77	13	25	93
2025-09	Exp	55	78	77	13	39	93
2025-08	Hyp	52	72	77	13	29	93
2025-07	Exp	53	63	77	13	40	93
2025-05	Ress	54	64	77	14	47	93
2025-04	Exp	55	70	77	14	46	93
2025-02	Exp	58	92	77	13	39	93
2025-01	Rec	58	95	77	13	42	93
2024-11	Rec	55	68	77	12	51	93
2024-08	Rec	57	78	77	14	47	93
2024-07	Exp	54	74	77	14	34	93
2024-05	Exp	59	81	77	12	62	93
2024-02	Exp	58	84	77	11	53	93
2023-11	Exp	61	95	77	14	55	93
2023-08	Exp	62	92	77	14	63	93
2023-07	Rec	60	92	77	14	54	93
2023-05	Rec	54	62	77	10	51	93
2023-03	Exp	50	28	77	8	64	93
2023-01	Exp	50	31	77	8	59	93
2022-11	Rec	58	46	77	9	89	93
2022-09	Rec	52	18	77	9	81	93
2022-08	Exp	46	15	77	9	52	93
2022-06	Exp	45	14	77	9	48	93
2022-03	Exp	47	11	77	9	60	93
2022-02	Rec	47	8	77	9	65	93
2021-12	Rec	36	9	77	6	64	28
2021-09	Exp	42	29	77	7	81	28
2021-07	Exp	40	33	77	7	65	28
2021-04	Exp	35	16	77	6	51	28
2021-03	Rec	46	54	77	7	81	28
2021-01	Rec	48	69	77	7	78	28
2020-12	Exp	46	62	77	9	74	26
2020-10	Exp	44	41	77	9	78	26
2020-09	Rec	40	24	77	9	72	26
2020-07	Rec	42	24	77	9	83	26
2020-04	Rec	42	31	77	9	76	26
2020-01	Rec	38	4	77	7	85	26
2019-11	Exp	41	17	77	8	89	24
2019-09	Exp	40	19	77	9	80	24
2019-08	Rec	39	15	77	8	79	24
2019-06	Rec	40	13	77	9	87	24
2019-04	Exp	39	12	77	9	83	24
2019-02	Exp	41	16	77	9	87	24
2019-01	Exp	38	16	77	9	74	24

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023