Rankings/Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 10580Compare

Risk Rank: #201 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -11

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Albany's housing market shows average risk, ranking 201st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Albany experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Expansion

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp96

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump72

12-month HPI change

Employmentp27

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+3.4%p52

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.2%p72

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-15.6%p24

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.29p26

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p15

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p27

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$356Kp96

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-15.6%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 24.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Albany's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Saratoga County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Rensselaer County anchors the lower end.

Moderate10.8Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Albany, NY shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Saratoga County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Rensselaer County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Albany County	69	Elevated	35.0%	75	50	75
Saratoga CountyRisk Driver	69	Elevated	26.3%	0	75	100
Schenectady County	50	Average	17.7%	50	100	50
Rensselaer CountyStabilizer	44	Below Average	17.7%	100	0	25
Schoharie County<5%	19	Low Risk	3.3%	25	25	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	52	76	77	13	25	93
2025-09	Exp	55	78	77	13	39	93
2025-08	Hyp	52	72	77	13	29	93
2025-07	Exp	53	63	77	13	40	93
2025-05	Ress	54	64	77	14	47	93
2025-04	Exp	55	70	77	14	46	93
2025-02	Exp	58	92	77	13	39	93
2025-01	Rec	58	95	77	13	42	93
2024-11	Rec	55	68	77	12	51	93
2024-08	Rec	57	78	77	14	47	93
2024-07	Exp	54	74	77	14	34	93
2024-05	Exp	59	81	77	12	62	93
2024-02	Exp	58	84	77	11	53	93
2023-11	Exp	61	95	77	14	55	93
2023-08	Exp	62	92	77	14	63	93
2023-07	Rec	60	92	77	14	54	93
2023-05	Rec	54	62	77	10	51	93
2023-03	Exp	50	28	77	8	64	93
2023-01	Exp	50	31	77	8	59	93
2022-11	Rec	58	46	77	9	89	93
2022-09	Rec	52	18	77	9	81	93
2022-08	Exp	46	15	77	9	52	93
2022-06	Exp	45	14	77	9	48	93
2022-03	Exp	47	11	77	9	60	93
2022-02	Rec	47	8	77	9	65	93
2021-12	Rec	36	9	77	6	64	28
2021-09	Exp	42	29	77	7	81	28
2021-07	Exp	40	33	77	7	65	28
2021-04	Exp	35	16	77	6	51	28
2021-03	Rec	46	54	77	7	81	28
2021-01	Rec	48	69	77	7	78	28
2020-12	Exp	46	62	77	9	74	26
2020-10	Exp	44	41	77	9	78	26
2020-09	Rec	40	24	77	9	72	26
2020-07	Rec	42	24	77	9	83	26
2020-04	Rec	42	31	77	9	76	26
2020-01	Rec	38	4	77	7	85	26
2019-11	Exp	41	17	77	8	89	24
2019-09	Exp	40	19	77	9	80	24
2019-08	Rec	39	15	77	8	79	24
2019-06	Rec	40	13	77	9	87	24
2019-04	Exp	39	12	77	9	83	24
2019-02	Exp	41	16	77	9	87	24
2019-01	Exp	38	16	77	9	74	24

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022