Rankings/Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 10580Compare

Risk Rank: #239 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -16

37score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Albany's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 239th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Albany experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -5% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump76

12-month HPI change

Migrationp54

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp50

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -5% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+8.5%p57

Days on Market YoY

-4.5%p38

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.3%p76

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-31.1%p8

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

2.00p18

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p15

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.4%p50

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$2Kp54

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-31.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 24.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Albany's counties diverge significantly — Saratoga County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Schenectady County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High21.6Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Albany, NY shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Saratoga County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Schenectady County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Saratoga CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	26.3%	75	25	100
Albany County	62	Elevated	35.0%	25	75	75
Rensselaer County	56	Elevated	17.7%	50	100	25
Schoharie County<5%	44	Below Average	3.3%	100	50	0
Schenectady CountyStabilizer	12	Low Risk	17.7%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	43	84	24	15	56	54
2025-11	Exp	52	76	77	13	25	93
2025-09	Exp	55	78	77	13	39	93
2025-08	Hyp	52	72	77	13	29	93
2025-07	Exp	53	63	77	13	40	93
2025-05	Ress	54	64	77	14	47	93
2025-04	Exp	55	70	77	14	46	93
2025-02	Exp	58	92	77	13	39	93
2025-01	Rec	58	95	77	13	42	93
2024-11	Rec	55	68	77	12	51	93
2024-08	Rec	57	78	77	14	47	93
2024-07	Exp	54	74	77	14	34	93
2024-05	Exp	59	81	77	12	62	93
2024-02	Exp	58	84	77	11	53	93
2023-11	Exp	61	95	77	14	55	93
2023-08	Exp	62	92	77	14	63	93
2023-07	Rec	60	92	77	14	54	93
2023-05	Rec	54	62	77	10	51	93
2023-03	Exp	50	28	77	8	64	93
2023-01	Exp	50	31	77	8	59	93
2022-11	Rec	58	46	77	9	89	93
2022-09	Rec	52	18	77	9	81	93
2022-08	Exp	46	15	77	9	52	93
2022-06	Exp	45	14	77	9	48	93
2022-03	Exp	47	11	77	9	60	93
2022-02	Rec	47	8	77	9	65	93
2021-12	Rec	36	9	77	6	64	28
2021-09	Exp	42	29	77	7	81	28
2021-07	Exp	40	33	77	7	65	28
2021-04	Exp	35	16	77	6	51	28
2021-03	Rec	46	54	77	7	81	28
2021-01	Rec	48	69	77	7	78	28
2020-12	Exp	46	62	77	9	74	26
2020-10	Exp	44	41	77	9	78	26
2020-09	Rec	40	24	77	9	72	26
2020-07	Rec	42	24	77	9	83	26
2020-04	Rec	42	31	77	9	76	26
2020-01	Rec	38	4	77	7	85	26
2019-11	Exp	41	17	77	8	89	24
2019-09	Exp	40	19	77	9	80	24
2019-08	Rec	39	15	77	8	79	24
2019-06	Rec	40	13	77	9	87	24
2019-04	Exp	39	12	77	9	83	24
2019-02	Exp	41	16	77	9	87	24
2019-01	Exp	38	16	77	9	74	24

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023