Rankings/Abilene, TX

Abilene, TX

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 10180Compare

Risk Rank: #3 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +23

76score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Abilene's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 3rd of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 9 months. Inventory is growing moderately (-43% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Abilene experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-43% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

9 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and price momentum, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp99

YoY permit change

Price Momentump98

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp90

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-43% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-42.7%p11

Days on Market YoY

-28.9%p10

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+18.3%p100

Months in status18

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+8.0%p98

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+121.3%p99

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.39p72

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.34p90

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p51

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$11Kp47

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+121.3%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 22.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	46	9	67	81	35	48
2025-09	Rec	46	9	67	81	33	48
2025-06	Rec	60	87	67	85	33	48
2025-03	Hyp	50	24	67	81	40	48
2025-02	Rec	53	40	67	81	46	48
2024-12	Hyp	53	69	67	85	10	48
2024-10	Hyp	44	5	67	85	23	48
2024-07	Hyp	52	23	67	81	53	48
2024-06	Ress	53	56	67	83	26	48
2024-04	Ress	54	55	67	83	33	48
2024-01	Hyp	43	4	67	80	24	48
2023-12	Rec	64	93	67	87	52	48
2023-10	Rec	61	100	67	87	26	48
2023-09	Hyp	57	81	67	80	27	48
2023-07	Hyp	51	54	67	80	20	48
2023-05	Ress	50	43	67	79	25	48
2023-03	Ress	59	81	67	83	40	48
2023-02	Hyp	57	73	67	83	35	48
2022-12	Ress	42	7	67	61	32	48
2022-10	Ress	41	4	67	61	28	48
2022-08	Hyp	41	15	67	66	14	48
2022-07	Ress	45	18	67	66	33	48
2022-05	Ress	48	28	67	69	40	48
2022-04	Hyp	50	27	67	69	51	48
2022-02	Exp	54	50	67	71	50	48
2021-12	Exp	61	71	68	82	55	55
2021-09	Exp	55	42	68	82	49	55
2021-06	Exp	58	39	68	84	64	55
2021-03	Rec	48	13	68	82	37	55
2021-01	Rec	47	15	68	82	26	55
2020-10	Rec	47	20	68	72	34	54
2020-09	Exp	49	29	68	73	36	54
2020-07	Exp	47	34	68	73	19	54
2020-06	Rec	46	23	68	75	22	54
2020-04	Rec	44	20	68	75	8	54
2020-03	Exp	44	20	68	73	13	54
2020-01	Exp	47	45	68	73	5	54
2019-10	Exp	41	4	68	76	3	61
2019-07	Rec	50	53	68	77	5	61
2019-05	Rec	48	20	68	78	28	61
2019-02	Rec	46	25	68	75	13	61
2019-01	Ress	51	47	68	75	18	61

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023